In October the 70th session of the International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC) decided that the implementation date for the global fuel sulphur cap of 0.5% should be 2020. A study commissioned by the IMO reported in August that “under all scenarios and sensitivity options considered, there will be sufficient clean fuel available in 2020” Whether there will be sufficient clean fuel is perhaps up for debate, right up to the October session The Baltic International Maritime Council (BIMCO) was arguing that “it is not possible to determine that the global refining industry will have the capacity to produce enough marine fuel by 2020.” As someone who has made a living in the marine industry all my life, and for many years in the bunker industry, I can see both points of view. What I can also see though is that in reality it doesn’t actually matter. Humanity has become obsessed with making decisions on the basis of predicting the outcomes of all options, if recent history has taught us anything, it is that these predictions, however earnestly arrived at, are mostly incorrect and the truth is there are a great many situations in which we just have to make the best decision we can and make the outcome good through the way in which we commit to it. The hugely good news is that the shipping industry is now in no doubt that the limit will be enacted and knows exactly when. There will inevitably be a raft of measures to offer schemes to help specific trades and types and age of vessel, but by and large we know what we’re dealing with. The uncertainty of the implementation date over the last few years has inevitably created a kind of paralysis in the industry, both in terms of the evolution of compliant fuels and the development and take up of abatement technologies. This has made the decision making process for ship owners and operators terribly difficult, a five or more year window for implementation puts some ships in the envelope for capital investment and takes other out. We hope that the certainty we now have will help owners and operators make informed decisions about how best to comply. The truth is the global refining industry will not need to produce sufficient compliant fuel for the worlds fleets, the shipping industry is populated by some truly innovative minds and responsible operators will find a variety of way of complying. By that I do not mean CATNAP, “Cheapest Available Technology Narrowly Avoids Prosecution” but rather, innovative fuel types, abatement technologies (of various types) and alternative propulsion methods. The global shipping industry faces challenges on a regular basis and has overcome greater ones than this, I have every faith that it will come up with some interesting ways to make this work.